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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.