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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent underperformers rising in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical year!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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